Prediction-market intelligence

Three actors form a pipeline over Polymarket's public tape: the whale tracker finds wallets moving size, the P&L analyzer tells you whether they're worth following, and the odds snapshot keeps your models fed with calibrated probabilities.

The pipeline

Discover → vet → monitor

The three Polymarket actors are designed as stages of one workflow over the public trade tape.

copy-trading research funnel — full cost ≈ $8

DISCOVER   whale-trades  min_usd: 10000, lookback: 72h
             → rank wallet_summary rows by net_buy_usd
VET        wallet-pnl    top 20 candidates × $0.35 = $7.00
             keep: win_rate ≥ 0.55 on resolved markets
                   two_sided_share < 0.15   (not a hedger)
                   coverage_capped == false (stats are complete)
MONITOR    odds-snapshot your watchlist, scheduled hourly
             ≈ $0.045/run for 25 markets

Why vetting matters

Leaderboards lie in three specific ways

Open positions marked as profit. A wallet “up $50k” on unresolved markets has realized nothing. The analyzer counts only resolved markets in realized P&L and win rate.
Mint artifacts. Negative-risk mints put phantom sells on the tape; naive trackers count them as profit. Flagged and excluded here.
Hedgers look like winners. A market-maker trading both sides shows steady “profits” you cannot copy directionally. The two_sided_share metric exposes them.

This is the vetting layer the Wallet P&L Analyzer automates for $0.35 a wallet — cheaper than one bad copied trade.

Beyond trading

Probabilities as a data product

Research & forecasting

Prediction-market prices are the best free, continuously updated probability estimates for elections, macro prints and world events. A scheduled odds snapshot is a calibrated prior for any forecasting model — about $0.12 per 100 markets.

Newsrooms & dashboards

“The market now prices X at 72%, up from 55% yesterday” — history mode delivers the series behind that sentence as clean JSON, chartable in anything.

Event studies

Join whale tape against price history: did size arrive before the move or chase it? Every trade row carries wallet, price, timestamp and tx hash.

Alt-data for equities

Pair market probabilities with hiring-velocity diffs from the ATS scraper for a two-source signal on the companies you cover.

Watch the whales tonight

One run at the default $5k threshold shows you the last 24 hours of size — typically $0.25–$0.85, covered by the free plan's credit.

Run the whale tracker →